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The support from Europe is not enough for Ukraine to survive.
Maybe it could be, if EU countries actually start up the military production as so many leaders are promising.
Maybe, but even then it would take years to actually ramp up the military production.
Yes. Best case scenario it would be terrible if the US cut off Ukraine. But I think with a generous transition time eu could do it.
Could do what? By the time European military production is up and running Ukraine will be mostly Russian.
With current progression rate, Russia will need more than 50 years to capture whole of Ukraine.
With the current progression rate, the Ukrainian army will run out of soldiers in a few years.
That is a naive statement that is not based on any data. I could say the same for Russia.
It’s based on the number of casualties in the conflict and the fact that Russia has a population about 4 times larger than Ukraine.
Which casualties number? Medvedev one, claiming that Ukraine had a million dead?
Reality is that this war can go on for a decade and both sides will have enough troops. Also warring countries don't run out of troops or anything. That's not how reality works. There would be a lot of other major problems long before a warring side would run out of troops.
You don’t have to go with Medeved’s, most estimates are already at several hundred thousands casualties for Ukraine.
That is a Russian number for Ukraine casualties.
Do you believe the Ukrainian number for Russian casualties?
https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-volodymyr-zelenskyy-announces-its-total-military-casualties-first-time/>>
That checks out, however, 370000 are not casualties, but the total number of injuries.
I invite you to look up the definition of the word casualties.
That is not a number of total soldiers lost.
But even if it is. In a scenario where the current army was not enough they could do a full scale mobilization and that would mean they have enough soldiers for many many years.
That is the number of soldiers killed or injured in the war, thus who can no longer fight.
Yes Ukraine could maybe do a full scale mobilization, but that’s a very big risk because it would lead to so many more casualties the country might not be able to bounce back after the war.
Besides, Ukrainians might just avoid the draft and flee.
Some might flee, but many have not. Wars throughout history have shown that nations at war tend to find ways to replenish their forces, whether through conscription, training new recruits, or integrating foreign volunteers. The idea that Ukraine would simply "run out" of soldiers is an oversimplification.
About 7 millions have fled, and that’s before the potential mass mobilization we’re discussing.
It might be an oversimplification but that’s the endgame Ukraine is facing.
That doesn't happen. Its like a cartoon scenario. In reality a country gets into far bigger other issues long before running out of soldiers becomes a problem.
You’re right it probably doesn’t happen that way as Ukraine will concede before it happens.
You cant concede when the enemy only offers you total destruction.
Total destruction is what happens if you don't concede.
In this case total destruction happens even if you concede. That's why there is no sense in conceding.
No, actually total destruction would be avoided if Ukraine concedes now.
Well very obviously no. Russia is offering nothing. Very specifically no guarantees, they want to prevent them getting weapons and prevent them going into any military alliances. That's total destruction of Ukraine.
And that is something that their opinion leaders have always claimed is the goal.
Ukraine has no other option than to fight, even if every nation in the world stops helping.
That's not total destruction of Ukraine. Words have meaning.
Fighting until all Ukrainians are dead or have fled or surrendered is not really a great option, is it?
You are a master of missing the point! I salute you!
That is 100% the total destruction of Ukraine, because the only reason for wanting your adversary to give up weapons and give up alliances and pretty much give up sovereignty is to finish them at a later time. There is no other reason. Ukraine has reason to stop fighting without any safety guarantees.
That’s not destruction of Ukraine.
Destruction of Ukraine is what might happen if there’s no ceasefire.
So you think if someone attacks you, then says that they will only stop if you give them everything they want, plus stop resisting and not call anyone for help, that you are safe.
That's insane. Nobody in their right mind would accept that.
No, I didn’t say any of this. Why are you putting words in my mouth?
You are free to correct my interpretation.
Ukraine can’t win against Russia. It can try to limit the damages now and keep existing as a country or continue the war and risk being entirely invaded. That’s a risky proposition.
Unfortunately it is becoming evident that European countries will not join the war and therefore Ukraine is on its own.
That Ukraine can't win is not a serious statement. Any country can win any war. That is clear from the human history. It's never only about size or strength. Only in recent history we can see that a poor country of Afghanistan, beat both the Soviet Union (and helped bring it's collapse) and the US.
By conceding everything to Russia, they will be entirely invaded within a few years. The concessions are directly made for that. People in the Russian government have stated that goal, their opinion leaders have stated that goal, Putin has started that goal, maybe not in those words, but more or less. The concessions are made for that, to keep a country weak, for an invasion. There is no other reason to have concessions like that.
Ukraine has no other option than to continue fighting. If they get no serious security guarantees, guarantees better than the Bucharest memorandum, they can not stop fighting and resisting as that would mean they will surely lose everything.
If you think Ukraine can win the war, I don’t know what to tell you… I respect freedom of opinion.
Did you expect Afganistan to win over the US?
Yes Ukraine can win, without a doubt. It stopped Russian offensive, it continues to destroy Russian fossil fuel industry. The effort Russia extends right now to support their economy and military is not sustainable. If the west continues to support there is no doubt Ukraine will win. Without the support, is hard to say, but there is no doubt that continuing to fight will have a better result than to surrender right now.
The U.S. secured control of Afghanistan in about two months, as everybody expected. Ukraine can't win the war, whatever winning means...
You have incredible but completely missed confidence in Russian military and Russia on general.
You have incredible but unfortunately completely unrealistic confidence in the Ukrainian military, and in Ukraine in general.
Ukraine has stopped the worlds second army and made them deplete All weapons they had.
They have not stopped the world’s second army as Russia is making advances everyday. Besides, the only reason Ukraine has been able to resist this much so far is the extraordinary support it has received from both the United States and European countries; this level of support can’t last.
Fact: Russia is not making advances every day.
Fact: Ukraine has not received extraordinary support. It has received old US weapons headed for the dumpsters and even these reluctantly. It has received less artillery ammo than Russia got from North Korea.
Fact: this level of support is easy to maintain and increase as US has sold far more weapons in this time to various countries, than has donated to Ukraine.
Fact: Russia is making advances every day.
Fact: Ukraine has received hundreds of billions of dollars of aid, intelligence sharing, internet satellite capabilities, training, coaching, diplomatic assistance, etc etc
Fact: No, it's not easy to maintain and increase as it costs a lot of money and people are not willing to keep assisting Ukraine for free indefinitely. Are you suggesting this can keep going on just because the USA has sold more weapons to other countries? Do you understand the difference between making a sale and donating something?
Russia is not making advances right now. It has hardly taken any significant land in the last year. At significant cost both in lives and material.
Ukraine has received 30 year old weapons headed for expensive decommission. Americans counted those like they are new.
Us and America have barely increased their defense budgets. Russia is in full war economy and barely making any progress.
Russia can lose. It has lost in the past. Every country can lose and did. The notion that this autocratic corrupt country without any real economy, any real local product besides fossil fuels cannot lose is bizarre and totally insane. They cant even build their own modern army, because it relies too much on parts from the west.
You are very disingenuous with your comments. So I will end it here. I suspect you might be some kind of troll or tankie.
You’re the disingenuous one and you are completely out of touch with reality for suggesting Russia hasn’t made advances in a year. Just last week they took back Kursk…
You are pretending as if the US support for Ukraine is not big whereas no country came remotely close to providing as much support as the US did.
Of course, any country can lose, but given the current circumstances it is quite unlikely Russia is going to lose. Being convinced that Ukraine will win is bonkers.