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It's like he can't comprehend that other people would react to his actions.
He raised tariffs, other nations reduced trade with the US and looked elsewhere. If he continues to raise tariffs it will inevitably cause the US to be isolated in trade.
It's not even a shocking/daring tactic, it's a self destructive tantrum because his misunderstanding has led to mismanagement and now he's doubling down
This doubling down is really telling...
It's like someone showed him a plastic toy mallet and it's the only tool he's aware of in his toolbox.
It's a move to spur domestic manufacturing and move the US to Autarky — straight out of Hitler's playbook; albeit an incompetent attempt because he's a mentally challenged degenerate.
Autarky isn't bad — covid highlighted the weaknesses that capitalism and globalism created for every economy — but Trumps goals are not risk mitigation or "national security", and he certainly intends for it to enable imperialist wars and conquests. The fact is the allies won WW2 largely because of US manufacturing capacity (Europes was destroyed). China could take Taiwan tomorrow and the world would have to let them as we are entirely reliant on Chinese manufacturing; they could cripple us if they halted exports.
I agree with almost everything here, but I don't think an embargo on China would be as damaging as you think it would.
It would hurt, don't get me wrong, but China is largely in the position it is now because the developed world was looking for cheap labour and China fit the bill. There is no lack of underdeveloped nations who would gladly shift their economy if it meant they could support a fraction of the manufacturing supply that China currently commands. Africa and South America (not a single nation, I know but this is true of many African and South American nations so I'm combining for simplicity's sake) is positioned both politically and geographically, to be a sudo-China in terms of manufacturing if the wider world decides to embargo China-proper.
The US and EU pulling out of China would devastated them far more than it would affect the former. I'd like to think that the EU at least, would be willing to withstand some economic damage to aid another nation in need.
It took 30 years for Chinese manufacturing to reach what it is today.
Yes, other countries would love to take on that role.
But it would take another 30 years, IF China cooperated and pushed the transition like the west did. Which they won't.
But that only takes into account the time when China started their shift into manufacturing. China has been THE dominant manufacturer for at least 20 years now. So we shouldn't judge by today, but should judge by their rise to dominance.
Plus having a distribution of countries to use as manufacturers allows for specialists to emerge, likely speeding up their individual adoption of the role they choose.
And why would China cooperate with their own exclusion from the world market? And even if they chose economic suicide, why would their assistance be required for other countries to become manufacturers?
China doesn't need to push the transitioning. Juat like you said, the previous time that push was done by the west. The same west can do the same push again.
I'm not well read on india's modern manufacturing capabilities, but I do know that they have been trying for a while to up their manufacturing exports and entice jobs that would normally go to china. 1 billion ppl is a competitive sized workforce.
If America and EU needed an immediate substitute, india could fit the bill.
This is exactly it. There are plenty of options, removing what is currently the best option just means picking the next best and so on and so on until we reach stability
Not really, for the same reasons Russia's economy is now in the shitter: sure they could sell oil to another country, but changing the whole infrastructure is not something that can be done in days. Same with moving the whole production of goods to a completely new country.
Also consider that nowadays western countries have lost the knowhow to produce efficiently goods (while their service industry still remains unmatched)
I can see the point your making. I'm not suggesting it'd be easy but if we moving to Russia as the example Russia would be the standin for China, not the wider world.
Russia's economy is now shit because they got embargoed, as China's would be, it hurt the wider world briefly, but that has mostly passed.
And I didn't suggest western countries take on the brunt of the manufacturing, I suggested it should be countries that would benefit from the overhaul to their economy
To be fair, if you look at it from the perspective of a narcissist who has never been told "no" his entire life, it makes perfect sense.
Exactly, he doesn't know how to negotiate because a negotiation involves give and take. Trump has only ever known take, take, take
He learned from Putin, it's all taking and gaslighting
This song describes this mentality well
For many years I have argued that Putin's actions in Ukraine and Europe "make sense" based on the assumption that no country in the world actually has agency in its actions other than a handful of superpowers - Russia, the US, and China. Any other country not on that list must be a vassal state of one of the ones that is, so if the Eastern European countries are no longer Russian vassals then that must logically mean they are now American vassals.
It would appear that Trump is under a similar delusion. He's apparently trying to beat countries into submission that he views as already being American vassals. Hence why he thinks stuff like the "51st state" garbage is no big deal, since in his view Canada's already 90% of the way to being a state anyway.
I agree. He seems to think countries should be paying tribute to the US.
No "seems" necessary. Just look at him and Vance berating Zelenskyy for not thanking them.
I'm sorry, but I completely disagree. I don't see any evidence for this vassal worldview (apart from extreme cases like Belarus and Russia). Without that first assumption the whole premise falls apart.
Even assuming the main characters (MC) and vassals idea is true to reality, the rest of the argument is flimsy at best. Even if a MC loses a vassal through mismanagement or foreign interference, that doesn't automatically mean that the vassal has a new MC overlord. They could be in a limbo state where some of the MCs are vying for control.
As for Trump, I think it's much less of a stretch to assume that Trump loves the sound of his own voice and what better way to hear his own voice than to create sound bites, hence the 51st state nonsense. If anything Trump's actions say to me that he has NO capacity for the mental mapping required to envision this kind of complex interweaving of interests and angles that is geopolitics. I find it even less likely that this is the one he would subscribe to.
Maybe vassals is too strong-worded to describe the phenomenon. But living in western Europe I have firsthand experience in the relationship between the US and my country in the past decades. The US offered protection to the "free world", but of course this comes at a price. The US had to be regarded as a role model in many ways, and everything that came out of the US, was copied and implemented verbatim. Which made the US the de facto puppet master and they really liked that role. This relationship was carefully orchestrated and nurtured by the US from the end of WW2 onwards, and the effect was that European countries embraced this strategy and viewed the US in a positive light, no obvious power play or bullying necessary. But the fact is, there always was a strong dependency on the US, and this was by US design.
Trump doesn't realize that there was good reason for choosing such a "soft" strategy, he can't because bullying is his only available tactic. He will soon find out that his perceived european vassal states don't respond as well to hostility and blackmail as he might have expected.
I see what you're saying, although I think it was a joint effort by the US and the EU. And it was short-sighted on both their parts.
The EU is feeling the heat that comes from a lapse in personal security and the US will find out that they aren't the power they thought they were without their allies.
If Trump isn't corrected it could all come crashing down for the US and the EU.
Why for the EU?
It's much easier to produce military hardware than to set up a large trading network.
Remember, we only need to have enough to decisively stop the Russia. We don't need to become another US military power.
Because it never stops at just stopping the enemy, the allies could have simply contained Nazi Germany but chose to invade. The US could have continued the war in the Pacific but chose to drop 2 atomic bombs.
Beating the enemy so thoroughly is the only way humans have ever been able to truly end a conflict of that scale, and in that situation if Europe is to beat Russia like that I don't believe they'd hesitate to start launching nukes.
So we're stuck in a situation where Europe either risk nuclear war, or an extended border skirmish that could last decades. Both would be devastating
I just hope that the EU and other major powers blacklist Yarvin's Cabal from living or operating in their territories. The 1%'s money is tainted, as it would surely be used to corrode and destroy countries as it had the US.
That's the goal. He isn't a Kremlin asset, he is a Pyongyang asset, implementing Juche in the US ;)