104
Many in US and western Europe think ‘third world war likely within five to 10 years’
(www.theguardian.com)
this post was submitted on 06 May 2025
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You're correct, however, keep in mind that authoritarians have fragile egos and are often focused locally, often on how to further subjugate their populations and garner favor. That usually means conflicts like insurgency or cross-border attacks like Russia into Ukraine (x2), Russia into Georgia, US into Mexico/Canada, India and Pakistan fighting over Cashmere, PRC and Taiwan, Serbia and Kosovo, Kenya/Somalia/Somalil and, Uganda and eastern DRC, etc. etc.
Boomer pissing contest fantasies of China and the US duking it out in the Pacific are foolish as neither wants to risk direct conflict with no tangible gains expected. It's a guarantee of either outright loss or maaaaybe a Pyrrhic victory of you already control your media. No landing party flotilla will land in Los Angeles or Hong Kong. The US only stands to lose.
Can I just point out how cute Americans screaming "Ukraine isnt our war" is expecting the rest of NATO to join their side against China.
China isnt our war, yeah they're not good, but the only reason America and China are at odds, is because they're both competing for who gets to be the hegemon and slave driver of the world, respectfully, yall can murder each other into extinction on your own dime, the rest of us would rather do something else with our energy.
Those are precisely the kind of conflicts I'm talking about.
As for USA vs China, it all hinges on what happens in Taiwan. If the USA feels it can onshore all chip fab it probably will let Taiwan get overrun. But I don't think that likely in the term in which this conflict is likely to happen, so I think the US will be pretty directly involved in this one.
The Chinese are making a lot of noise about Taiwan and that's why Taiwan is the last place you should be looking at. Look at Outer Manchuria, instead, especially in the face of Russian weakness and looming chaos.
I don't disagree with you here either. It will be one or the other.
Gotcha, sorry I thought you meant in a sort of a more large-scale coordinated way with the authoritarians.
The easiest way for China to take Taiwan back is to wait for something complicated to occupy the military and WH, even only at the very top leadership level. A protracted and undeniable scandal, another major shake-up while the boss is out of town, or the end result of all this internal military use for law enforcement that seems to want to end posse comitatus within I think 80-ish days at this point, are all options. Spin up the machine to catch it's own tail and the response elsewhere will be too little and too late because of the more hierarchical nature of decison-making now. Steve Bannon's own "flood the zone with shit" tactic, inspired by Tsun Tzu.
Chip fab won't matter because nothing else logical has mattered so far. Why jump straight to a trade war with all your largest trading partners without even preparing for it? Foolishness and ego. Same same here as well.
Honestly, I fully expect China to just wait out Taiwan right now because the US is busy hurting itself. Who wants to distract their enemy when they are constantly making huge mistakes?
Literally a chapter in the Art of War.