That's a good point. I rescind my argument that training is necessarily more expensive than sum-of-all-deployment.
I still think people overestimate the power draw of AI though, because they're not dividing it by the overall usage of AI. If people started playing high-end video games at the same rate AI is being used, the power usage might be comparable, but it wouldn't mean that an individual playing a video game is suddenly worse for the environment than it was before. However, it doesn't really matter, since ultimately the environmental impact depends only on the total amount of power (and coolant) used, and where that power comes from (could be coal, could be nuclear, could be hydro).
I think the more important takeaway from this article is not the political one, but that problems with a biological fix can be extremely easy to solve compared to problems that require societal change, even though we normally think of it as being the other way around.
If you are expecting AI to not have much impact and turn out to be a bubble, then I guess there isn't much reason to believe it it will have much environmental impact. If you expect AI to not be a fad, then yeah it could have big environmental consequences if we can't find renewable power and coolant. If AI is all it is hyped up to be, then it would dwarf the rest of humanity's power consumption down to a footnote. So it really depends on how bullish you are about AI, or at least how bullish you expect the market to be going forward.
Regarding proof-of-work crypto, well, bitcoin is currently at its all-time high in terms of value, exceeding USD$100k/BTC. So I'm not sure I exactly buy the idea that it's less popular, though perhaps people aren't reporting on it as much. If the power consumption of crypto has levelled off, which I don't know if it has, then it might be because it's expensive to build a mining rig and the yield goes down over time as more bitcoin is mined. (It's presumably true of other proof-of-work crypto, too, but as more BTC is mined, the marginal yield of mining more BTC decreases.)
How is it any worse than crypto farms, or streaming services?
These two things are so different.
Streaming services are extremely efficient; they tend to be encode-once and decode-on-user's-device. Video was for a long time considered a tough thing to serve, so engineers put tons of effort into making it efficient.
Crypto currency is literally designed to be as wasteful as possible while still being feasible. "Proof-of-work" (how Bitcoin and many other currencies operate) literally means that crypto mining algorithms must waste as much computation as they can get away with doing pointless operations just to say they tried. It's an abomination.
never heard of the ben franklin effect before, neat.
Maybe you should stop smelling text and try reading it instead. :P
Running an LLM in deployment can be done locally on one's machine, on a single GPU, and in this case is like playing a video game for under a minute. OpenAI models are larger than by a factor of 10 or more, so it's maybe like playing a video game for 15 minutes (obviously varies based on the response to the query.)
It makes sense to measure deployment usage marginally based on its queries for the same reason it makes sense to measure the environmental impact of a car in terms of hours or miles driven. There's no natural way to do this for training though. You could divide training by the number of queries, to amortize it across its actual usage, which would make it seem significantly cheaper, but it comes with the unintuitive property that this amortization weight goes down as more queries are made, so it's unclear exactly how much of the cost of training should be assigned to a given query. It might make more sense to talk in terms of expected number of total queries during the lifetime deployment of a model.
Statutory rape in particular. We need to normalize the usage of the term statutory rape.
Out of curiosity, if they weren't mistreating people, what would the expected number of deaths be given the total number of people-days of detention since January?
Okay I do agree with this, that the fear of being perceived as wrong pushes people to be unmalleable in their opinions. I am not sure I would describe that as "arguing fortifies your emotional stance," because I think there's a better explanation of the underlying mechanism as you pointed it out.
By virtue of being somebody who argues on the internet, shouldn't you then reason that all of your beliefs are suspect, especially the ones you believe most strongly? You must surely expect that you are as unreceptive to new ideas that challenge your beliefs as anyone else. In particular, any evidence in favour of the idea that people can change their mind when confronted with new information you would simply discard.
I agree with your second statement. You have misunderstood me. I am not saying the damage is done so we might as well use it. I am saying people don't understand that it is the training of AIs which is directly power-draining.
I don't understand why you think that my observation people are ignorant about how AIs work is somehow an endorsement that we should use AIs.
They're very portable, so you can carry them around with you in case you come up with an idea of something to write on your Tesla while you're out and about. They stick to the surface quite well and don't wash off in the rain.
(Please try not to succumb to the temptation to write "F**k off Nazi Scum" or similar on somebody else's though like other people are suggesting. That might encourage people not to buy Teslas, which is a shame, because they're great American cars.)
I've had enough of sitting around at home doing nothing. I want to sit around outside instead.
Basically, I want to go out and set up a table somewhere and talk to passers-by about queer rights. I'm not sure canvassing is exactly the word for this, but I've seen people do this to gather pro-life support in my city so I'm sure it's allowed. I'll figure out the legal routes for this on my own.
What literature should I consult? I want to focus on how to talk to anti-trans moderates especially. Here's some things they touch on when I talk to them at protests:
Usually I don't hear much hate for non-trans queers in my area, at least not stated out loud. But in my opinion, an attack on trans rights is an attack on all of us.
Regarding (1), it still gets the network effect because of iOS users. That it's harder for android users to install does not mean the marginal utility of an android user installing the app is lower than that of an iOS user installing the app.