this post was submitted on 28 Feb 2025
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This thinking is flawed if applied in general without any consideration of the dynamics in a particular riding. I don't know how many people think and vote this way without checking their riding's numbers. Perhaps many. In my riding it was the right move, as the NDP candidate got under 5%. Given how three seats were won by less than 40 votes, I think there's some validity in informed strategic vote. But voting for OLP instead of ONDP "strategically" without checking riding numbers is very much flawed and I hope these people, along with traditional OLP voters would do something else the next time around.
Maybe ndp would have more than 5% of the vote if people picked the candidate they actually want instead of voting strategically.
True if you believe strategic vote is a large proportion. I don't. I believe the majority of voters vote based on party leaders, past preferences, etc. I don't believe strategic vote can make up a 40% difference. I believe strategic vote shift to ONDP would mean PCs stay at 45% while OLP and ONDP get to something closer to 35% and 15%, or 30/20. The PCs still win, with higher margin. That's my guess. For the parties to switch positions in such riding, I believe it'll take significant campaigning by the ONDP candidate as well as Marit Stiles positioning herself as a significantly better leader than whoever heads the OLP, and clear, bold populist policies. If such a change occurs, the informed strategic vote will shift accordingly. If the polls in my riding showed 5-10% advantage for the ONDP I'd have voted for them.