this post was submitted on 21 Apr 2025
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Most Canadians do not want a housing market "comeback". We need a crash, with the federal and provincial governments lowering costs by building. And tax changes to decommidify housing.

“It feels like the best case for housing is five or 10 years where price growth tracks sideways and you get the relief coming through income growth,” Mr. Doyle said.

“But the risk is things spiral with this trade war and we’re into a stagnation environment where it’s not a sideways movement any more, it’s a sharp downturn.”

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-canadas-housing-market-was-poised-for-a-comeback-then-a-trade-war/

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[–] [email protected] 8 points 1 week ago

The real problem I see is its tied to our money supply.

-The mortgage acts as a gatekeeper for an inelastic good that is necessary for life and procreation, hence the youth are forced to sign up for it, which grows the money supply when they take out the mortgage. This means the price is always being bid up and will fill whatever available debt bucket people can attain.

-This newly created currency goes from the bank to the boomer, the boomer spends the money, and it grows aggregate demand.

-This then funnels down into goods prices, counteracting deflation due to technological progress; counteracting CPI deflation such as hedonic adjustments and subtitutions; counteracting money taken out of circulation rather than being spent, by it being invested into alternative investments; leading to our 2% inflation target.

If the price of homes fall then you get a virtuous cycle of people no longer taking out mortgages, as no one wants to catch a falling knife, leading to a dramatic fall in the money supply. So instead we push the bubble higher until it finally becomes unsustainable. Its really a fundamental problem with our entire monetary system as far as I see it, and will inevitably always lead to the kind of demographic collapse we are seeing.