this post was submitted on 25 May 2025
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Most of the comments are misinterpreting this graph. OP, you are correct. Homicides are falling year over year. The rate is compared to 2015, not comparing year-to-year.
https://www.fbi.gov/news/press-releases/fbi-releases-2023-crime-in-the-nation-statistics
According to this graph, homicide was still 15% higher in 2024 compared to 2015 but has fallen year over year from 2021.
Note the axis intercept - "0%" corresponds to the 2015 homicide rate. If a given year were to drop to 0% on this graph, that would not mean it matched the previous year - it would mean the homicide rate matched 2015.
It should be fairly obvious that this graph indicates this. If homicide climbed 10%-50% every year, compound interest would put the homicide rate at well over triple the rate it was in 2015.