No. Homicides have still raised by 15% in 2024. This is a graph of rate increase in homicides, not of homicides. It's the second derivative (see speed vs acceleration)
this post was submitted on 25 May 2025
269 points (92.2% liked)
Microblog Memes
7731 readers
4013 users here now
A place to share screenshots of Microblog posts, whether from Mastodon, tumblr, ~~Twitter~~ X, KBin, Threads or elsewhere.
Created as an evolution of White People Twitter and other tweet-capture subreddits.
Rules:
- Please put at least one word relevant to the post in the post title.
- Be nice.
- No advertising, brand promotion or guerilla marketing.
- Posters are encouraged to link to the toot or tweet etc in the description of posts.
Related communities:
founded 2 years ago
MODERATORS
That's not correct. There were 15% more homicides in 2024 than in 2015 but the homicide rate went down since the peak of the 2020 crime wave.
The data showed on that image contradicts this, it says "percentage change in homicides and police killings since 2015". This is very clear language, "since 2015, this is the percentage change in homicides and police killings", not "difference between homicides and police killings in this year to 2015".
I'm talking about the original chart, not this chart specifically, the language is implying different things, probably showing things that are not real, based on the text that was given.
Percent changed compared to 2015 would be better, but choosing a graph like this makes no sense if it would have been change yoy and also if that were the case then starting at 0% makes no sense.
I agree.
The vague wording is bad, I think they should just use the absolute values and another one with the percentages, that would make it a lot clearer.
Murder rate
a quantity, amount, or degree of something measured per unit of something else
- Merriam-Webster (emphasis mine)
Both police killings and murders are increasing, but police murders are increasing faster year over year than homicides are increasing.
Regardless of the administration, the US is increasingly a police state controlled by an oligarchy.
The graph you are responding to clearly shows that murders are decreasing. The graph in OP also indicates this.
Your last point is only partially correct - the police state does grow every year, but the rate of increase is absolutely dependent on the administration. The Wars on ~~minorities~~ "Drugs and Terror" were each started under Republicans, and the current one is actively and intentionally making the police state much worse.
the US is increasingly a police state controlled by an oligarchy.
alwayshasbeen.jpeg
but the gloves are coming off though for sure
Seems like the same 2020 high happened in Sweden, UK, Netherlands, ... (1). Perhaps covid (and lockdown) related?
Its not year on year, all datapoints are the rate against 2015's rate.
No. You are not reading the graph correctly, please confirm your statistics before trying to correct others.
Murder and non-negligent manslaughter recorded a 2023 estimated nationwide decrease of 11.6% compared to the previous year.
https://www.fbi.gov/news/press-releases/fbi-releases-2023-crime-in-the-nation-statistics
Homicide has fallen year over year from 2021.
But, according to this graph, homicide was still 15% higher in 2024 compared to 2015.
Note the axis intercept - "0%" corresponds to the 2015 homicide rate. If 2026 were to drop to 0% on this graph, that would not mean 2026 matched 2025 - it would mean 2026 matched 2015.
It should be fairly obvious that this graph indicates this. If homicide climbed 10%-50% every year, compound interest would put the homicide rate at well over triple the rate it was in 2015.
"as other homicides fell", but shows growth rate. This is just disinformation from the media (New York Times), homicides grew not "fell", by its own chart.
This must be intentional, because no one would do this using this chart. Is it implying that police killings reduce other homicides? (based on this contradictory chart)
Edit: chart
OK. Are both lines calculated with that same metric? If so it's still apples to apples.
~~The legend states what you have pointed out.~~ (no it doesn't I misremembered, my bad) BUT STILL, maybe an editor thought the headline was too long?
If so it's still apples to apples.
At the same time, derivatives are known to be noise amplifiers. Second derivative even more so.
I fear the author wanted to talk about apples, the measurements didn't agree, so kept taking derivatives until the graph agreed with their bias. Why else talk about change in change of apples?
As always, misinformation has been spread, tweet succesfull ✅️
You might be correct but you are clearly in an area of expertise that is beyond mine, so I'm going to let the other folks arguing about it argue about it. 🙂
It's not misinformation, nor is it the second derivative. It's just comparing to 2015.
that chart is ass, and the way the data is presented is even worse. tf is that y axis??
Exactly this, you deserve more upvotes than anyone arguing lol
Most of the comments are misinterpreting this graph. OP, you are correct. Homicides are falling year over year. The rate is compared to 2015, not comparing year-to-year.
Murder and non-negligent manslaughter recorded a 2023 estimated nationwide decrease of 11.6% compared to the previous year.
https://www.fbi.gov/news/press-releases/fbi-releases-2023-crime-in-the-nation-statistics
According to this graph, homicide was still 15% higher in 2024 compared to 2015 but has fallen year over year from 2021.
Note the axis intercept - "0%" corresponds to the 2015 homicide rate. If a given year were to drop to 0% on this graph, that would not mean it matched the previous year - it would mean the homicide rate matched 2015.
It should be fairly obvious that this graph indicates this. If homicide climbed 10%-50% every year, compound interest would put the homicide rate at well over triple the rate it was in 2015.
If chart needs this much discussion to figure out what it is says, then it is a useless chart.
Why would somebody publish something like this? We will never know!
Some people refuse to read, it literally explains it.
Sure buddy
Obviously the police are killing all the murderers. /s
"Intensive policing"
"Since" is the wrong word in the subtitle there. Should be "compared to"
I don't think the graph is showing the phenomenon that OP thinks it's showing - there was a crime wave that started in 2020 which isn't over yet, but things have gotten significantly better since 2022 and that's the same internal when police killings went up, so the straightforward conclusion is that there has been more intensive policing in the last three years which is what has reversed the dramatic increase in the homicide rate.
I'm not sure I agree with your original assertion nor your conclusion, but it's a fair argument! Intensive policing as the defense for this graph seems like a bit of a euphemism to me.
Incorrect. The graph is relative to 2015. According to this graph, homicides have fallen dramatically the past three years, and if the trend continues they will return to pre-2020 levels by next year.
2017 saw ~10% more homicides than 2015.
2024 saw only ~15% more homicides than 2015.
There is no indication that aggressive policing is responsible for the reduction from 2021.
The last police necromancer, capable of raising the dead, died in 2020. They raised 5 people from the dead in 2016.
Covid knew to aim for the necromancer, what a gamer. Ggwp