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A grim poll shows most Jewish Israelis support expelling Gazans. It's brutal - and true
(www.haaretz.com)
this post was submitted on 03 Jun 2025
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Most of October 7 was a crime, even without the hostages. Taking the hostages was itself a crime, and continuing to hold them continues to be a crime.
The question of what Hamas "should" do is more complicated. Clearly following international law is not a priority for them, so that justification goes out the window.
In terms of actually advancing their interests, I don't see much benefit to them. Their biggest asset in Israeli domestic politics are the hostages. The political pressure in Israel to free them is real, and the decision makers all know that a deal is the only way to meet that. Further, a not insignificant portion of the population oppose the war in it's current form specifically because of the hostages. The only wins Hamas has gotten has been through hostage negotiations.
In exchange for giving all of that up, Hamas gets a slight benefit in the PR war. It is a very hard sell to say that is a good trade.
If you want Hamas to free the hostages, you need to get to a point where "Hamas should free the hostages" is true from the perspective of Hamas. Then, you can work on convincing them it is true. The good news is that Hamas is very amenable to the idea that releasing hostages is in their interest. That is the entire reason you take hostages: to get some benefit by releasing them.
I am using "should" in a moral sense, according to my own moral compass. I mean that according to my own morality they "should do the right thing". Nothing beyond that.
That said, I agree with your analysis entirely.