this post was submitted on 05 Feb 2025
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Summary

Renowned climate scientist James Hansen warns that limiting global warming to 2°C is no longer possible due to underestimated climate sensitivity and reduced sun-blocking pollution from ships.

His study suggests warming could hit 2°C by 2045, increasing extreme weather and accelerating ice melt. The research challenges IPCC models, arguing for a higher climate sensitivity estimate.

Hansen calls for carbon taxes, nuclear energy, and geoengineering research.

He warns of an Atlantic ocean current collapse within 20-30 years.

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[–] [email protected] 7 points 7 hours ago

Some good news:

  • emission rates have plateaued; we are still destroying the planet, but no longer accelerating the rate at which we do it
  • Solar panels (unsubsidized) are the cheapest method of electricity generation as of 2022
  • there is a fundamentally limited amount of fossil fuels, so as long as we don’t turn to Venus 2.0 by 2100 we will deplete most coal and oil and it will be possible for our ancestors to repair the planet over the following centuries.

Yeah I know even this “good news” is bleak, but it’s worth celebrating. There is some hope.

[–] [email protected] 60 points 19 hours ago (2 children)

Spoiler Alert: Look around you. Humanity is not going to address this issue. Enjoy your life and if you have kids, let them know their futures and their kid's futures etc are going to be progressively bleaker.

[–] [email protected] 7 points 12 hours ago (2 children)

when i was a kid it was 6°C by 2100, but we have reduced this trajectory to 2.9–3.4°C

[–] [email protected] 3 points 8 hours ago (1 children)

may be, but with the feedback loops fully contributing then, the 6°C goal will be delayed a few decades.

and by the way, the political was to stop it at 1.5°C by 2050. nobody ever assumed 6°C an acceptable outcome.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 2 hours ago

I'm just showing that we are lowering the projection curve due to our efforts. 2 degrees is too hot by far but progress is being made, we aren't just ignoring the situation.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 9 hours ago* (last edited 9 hours ago) (1 children)

Yeah... I dunno about that. The 2C was in An Inconvenient Truth, unless my memory has completely failed me. I think that's when we hit the point of no return, and the "dominoes" start falling.

[–] [email protected] 7 points 14 hours ago

Look, the only way for this to end is for humanity to die. That's it.

[–] [email protected] 18 points 18 hours ago

Will this affect Mark in his bunker? If not, not sure why I’d care!

[–] [email protected] 44 points 1 day ago (3 children)

Wow, wasn’t it just last year when they took the 1.5° target off life support and called it?

Now the 2° is dead? Are we killing off 2.5° by summer?

[–] [email protected] 27 points 19 hours ago

Last year there was hope that the US will at least not get worse.

[–] [email protected] 11 points 20 hours ago (1 children)

lots of folks said it was not going to happen. Last year was really recognizing there was absolutely no way its happening because it had actually passed it already so there is no way we were not passing it as we have. you will see something when we pass it about how now its impossible not to im sure soon enough.

[–] [email protected] 11 points 19 hours ago (1 children)

The scary part is that seems to make no difference (to people, corps, countries). Has anyone changed anything based on passing that target? Will the anyone change their minds or behavior with this new projection?

Maybe I’m just cynical with the disaster of the US elections - we were finally making a little progress, finally had reason to hope, but we just threw that away

[–] [email protected] 9 points 16 hours ago

I still can't get the hanging chads thing and how different it would be if gore had been president for the start of the millenia.

[–] [email protected] 16 points 22 hours ago (2 children)

All of last year, every time they said this month was the hottest on record, I kept saying "So far..."

[–] [email protected] 3 points 15 hours ago

It is currently the beginning of Feb and our normal weather here is a few days of snow, usually a few inches, usually at least one large to shut everything down (like 10+"). Overcast. In the 20s and 30s (F).

I went skiing on Saturday and have never seen so much literally bare ground outside of the very early or very very late season.

I went to a protest today. Parked a distance away and walked. It was 68°. It feels like the end of April. We got almost no snow - only like a foot unseasonably early in the middle of November. The wildfire season this year is going to be rough, and the summer will be brutal.

[–] [email protected] 48 points 1 day ago (3 children)

We either become mole people, dolphin people, or space people

Maybe oxygen clubs will be the new thing in 50 years to get out of the smog/humidity

[–] [email protected] 6 points 17 hours ago

Yeah, or just dead people.

[–] [email protected] 18 points 1 day ago (1 children)

Maybe oxygen clubs will be the new thing in 50 years to get out of the smog/humidity

Too late, these exist:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oxygen_bar

[–] [email protected] 16 points 1 day ago (4 children)

Okay my next big idea is the bodega van. Instead of an ice cream truck for kids it's a convenience store for adults in the suburbs. It's 6:47pm and you're out of milk, tissues, and you forgot to buy broccoli for your dinner. Oh shit it's the bodega van music. Brb, gotta walk down the block instead of spend 20m in a car, parking lot, store, line, back. As long as the margins are less than doordash it's worth using.

Cmon please tell me I have one original thought in this wide world.

[–] [email protected] 4 points 16 hours ago

the bodega van music

hmmm... maybe "We Like To Party" by Vengaboys

[–] [email protected] 2 points 16 hours ago

God... I actually want this.

[–] [email protected] 7 points 1 day ago (1 children)

Sorry we had grocery buses in Finland driving out to villages at least since the 80's. Not sure if they exist anymore

[–] [email protected] 9 points 1 day ago (1 children)

How about some sort of hot dog helicopter?

[–] [email protected] 3 points 1 day ago

And veggies. Repurpose the heli to mass produce chopped salads from the sky

[–] [email protected] 2 points 1 day ago

We need ice cream truck reform first. The damn things never stay still long enough for me to catch them

[–] [email protected] 3 points 1 day ago

Apparently some of us “dril baby drill” and we’ll make those profits when we get there

[–] [email protected] 9 points 20 hours ago

I'm before we hit 2C by 2030

[–] [email protected] 22 points 1 day ago (1 children)

Not a shock. We have not done enough.

[–] [email protected] 16 points 1 day ago (1 children)

If your mean "we" as humanity, yes. If you mean "we" like you and me, then no.

The main responsible didn't do enough and that's not us.

Only a few decided to ignore all the warnings, so money could be made.

[–] [email protected] 9 points 16 hours ago

I mean. We didn't kill them yet though.

[–] [email protected] 12 points 1 day ago (1 children)
[–] [email protected] 7 points 18 hours ago

That's what I'm missing - we knew decades ago what happens after we hit 2C...

This, just like the current US collapse, it is just maddening to look at. Watching the bus drive off the cliff without even stepping off the gas and nobody batting an eye... I don't know how much more I can take.

(not an american btw)

[–] [email protected] 19 points 1 day ago (1 children)

Pfft, gulf of Amerika will solve it!!

[–] [email protected] 19 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago)

*gulf of AmeriKKKa

[–] [email protected] 2 points 1 day ago (3 children)

We should put research into stratospheric aerosol injection. We need an insurance to limit climate change if emissions don't go down fast enough.

We know it works, and it's at least not catastrophically unsafe as we have already done it with container ships, and seen it happen at bigger scale with volcanic eruptions.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 16 hours ago (1 children)

Let's just hope that it doesn't end up like Snowpiercer!

[–] [email protected] 2 points 7 hours ago

Its very unlikely for these reasons:

  • limited lifetime
  • we have already seen volcanic eruptions which put a lot of SO2 into the stratosphere, and thet did not cause an ice age, so it's clearly fine if we don't put too much

Anyway, that's what research is for.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 18 hours ago (1 children)

Let's fix the environment by fuckin it up more.

[–] [email protected] 4 points 15 hours ago

We have been fucking it for centuries. And by the looks of things, that's not stopping any time soon. I'd rather we have something we can do besides hoping that certain people decide now's the time to seriously address climate change.

[–] [email protected] -2 points 21 hours ago

100% This, and also microbubbles in the ocean