Wall Street will celebrate but businesses are not going to resume normal operations. Even if a concrete deal is signed in 90 days Trump's word is as strong as a wet piece of single ply toilet paper covered in feces.
this post was submitted on 12 May 2025
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I'm not saying this was his plan all along, I don't think he's smart enough to think it up himself, but this has been a huge success for companies like Wallmart and Amazon, especially if the tariffs are never actually going into effect. The small shops have already had to downsize and even shut down in anticipation. Now Wallmart and Amazon can swoop in and pick up a bigger piece of the market. Bezos is laughing his ass off about how much he's going to make off of this.
Our ports are literally empty, we have less than a month's worth of goods left from the last shipment from China, and it takes 8 weeks to cross the pacific ocean with a cargo ship if they sent them today. It absolutely wasn't the plan, and they probably think this last ditch effort will prevent empty shelves in three weeks. This is too little too late.
Also all the wealthy that were able to buy plenty of stock on the dip
watch closely. prices will still rise. blame will still be placed on the war. note who does this. the problem, of course, is capitalism
All 90 days does is increase the pricing on shipping for the next 30-60 days while everyone tries to import in preparation for the resume of the import taxes.
exactly
blame will still be placed on the war.
Yes, it will, and to a large extent rightly so. I'd hope you understand that this insane fucking whiplash means the following:
- Logistics have been made more complicated and therefore expensive.
- Some companies have probably already made expensive changes based on this that can no longer be turned back.
- Companies (especially small businesses) now feel like they have to "make hay while the Sun shines", i.e. make money while Trump isn't tarrifing our biggest source of imports at a gajillity-billion percent. This way they don't go bankrupt the next time Trump decides to collapse the economy from his phone on the toilet. (EDIT: And to be clear, Trump himself is explicitly saying he will 90 days from now. No remotely stable business is going to say "oh, okay, we'll just make all of our financial decisions based on this three-month window of quasi-normalcy and not account for the indefinite period of fuckery that's all but certain to follow.)
- Consumers (correctly) being worried over this means they're (correctly) less likely to buy product. If businesses want to stay in business, they either need to downsize or sell each item for more.
- EDIT: China also isn't our only trading partner. Exorbitant new tariffs on other countries still exist and still massively impact prices.
I'm 100% certain there are things I'm failing to consider here. Trump moved past the point on the curve where deformation can be considered elastic.
I work in a factory in R&D, we are planning a factory out. What you are saying is absolutely true. After a certain point the tariff walk backs are irrelevant because big purchases have already been made which locks the choice in. This point has already been hit and upper management, hell honestly even vendor we talk to, has zero confidence in how everything will play out until trumps out of office.
i think your points are, indeed, completely on point. no pun intended. I think, on a long enough time scale, prices on consumer products will follow the same ever adapting and almost instantly changing formulas fuel prices have.
Tell that to all the small businesses I've already seen laying their staff off and winding down business with what stock they have left. It's too little too late for them.
There’s already empty ports, the ripple effects of that are still coming.
If people are forced to still spend an extra 30% on a wide variety of items, they're going to have to save that money elsewhere by not buying something.
90 days... Businesses are not going to load there product on ships over a 90 day freeze. I bet China leaders are laughing themselves to bed over this.
There are already a bunch of companies who got $10,000+ tarriffs bills for products they ordered months before tarriffs were intoruced, before Trump was even in office.
Why would they order more stuff for the tarriffs to come back In 4 months and fuck them over again?
It's based on when it clears customs. Not when it was ordered, shipped, or arrives at port. Considering how long it'll take to get ports back up and running after a shut down, nothing is getting processed within the next 90 days.
I can't believe Trump actually got it through his thick skull that trade war bad. No literally, I can't believe it. I wonder what happened to make him agree to this.
He didn't. This is just a short delay. Trade war resumes in 90 days. We already have empty ports. There's not going to be a ton of extra buying with the expiration of the tariff-suspense looming and how long it takes to fill and ship orders that distance.
Trump blew up the economy only to pause or walk back every single one of his stupid tariffs that were supposed to "make everybody rich" and bring manufacturing back to America. Could have seen that one coming from a mile away.
And we'll never know the terms of the new trade deals he negotiates, only that they are great and better than before and that we should be thanking him on our hands and knees. As if anybody actually gives a single fuck about whether or not the U.S. runs a trade deficit.
Mark my words, these tariffs are never going to go fully into effect for any significant amount of time. One day into their implementation and it was clear how damaging and destructive they were, so they got paused to halt the chaos. Trump now needs a way to pull back on the reins and rescind the tariffs while still looking like he is emerging victorious. I expect more "breakthrough trade deals" in the coming weeks. In spite of this, however, the damage to the trust in American stability and economic certainty will probably never recover from the absolutely idiotic implementation of these tariffs for the sake of gaining negotiation power when a phone call could have had the same effect.
Send the ships, quick. Don’t want to have to put up with people hoarding supplies or toilet paper again.