this post was submitted on 24 Apr 2025
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TL;DR: shorting can be an extremely dangerous proposition, tread carefully and warily.
An anecdote about shorting stocks: A close friend of mine heavily shorted RIM in early 2009 when the writing was on the wall about the success of Android and iPhone.
However the stock proceeded to double in the months following, eventually squeezing my friend substantially and generating a very significant loss.
So this person was right about the future value of RIM as a company, and was even right about the reasons — but still lost out big time.
Even in case where the stock prices don’t squeeze you out, the carrying costs can be significant and easily eat all of the profits if you get the timing wrong. Most people should never short a stock.
That’s why I basically don’t short stocks. The possible amount of how much you can lose is unlimited, and as you said being wrong about the timing is also a killer.
Omg, shorting RIM in 2009 would have been really stupid even though yes, the writing was on the wall.
There was a lot of national interest in keeping RIM afloat because it was basically our (Canada's) first modern tech company to have wild success beyond our own borders. A lot of random people had very positive views of the company.
I didn't really see a huge dip in support for RIM in the media until around 2012 or so. That would have been a way better time to short. But as you say, most people should never short a stock – it isn't simple or easy to tell when to do it or when to stop.
I mean especially in hindsight it absolutely was dumb, I can’t argue against that. And it was certainly a mistake to bet so much without having cover.
At the time I agreed with this person that their analysis of RIM as a dead company walking was correct. In fact I was likely partly responsible for their outlook (though not their reckless position).
As you say —the national interests and hope in RIM’s success kept the price at irrational levels. Much like I argued here that Tesla is staggeringly overvalued today… which is why I made the comparison in the context of someone wanting to short Tesla today. It doesn’t matter if you’re right, for shorts it also matters when you’re right.