No Stupid Questions

A lot will fail yes, but I think there's actually a lot of value in AI and many will succeed. Blockchain has always been a solution in search of a problem, but AI actually can help in a lot of ways.

Open ai made $2 billion on $5 billion in losses. Although, folks on here are talking about having it write proposals or spreadsheet formulas; this is not really a monetizable product. Aside from onsie twosie "it helps me write an email" scenarios, this isn't something anyone should be spending $20 a month to boil the planet for.

Yes, but not to the same extent. Both AI and Blockchain are amazing technologies, but those people that are pushing either as the next big thing since slice bread don't understand them.

Blockchain is an elegant solution to a decades old problem that's actually impossible to solve called Byzantine fault tolerance by making it costly to bad actors to the point where it's better for them to become good actors. It is revolutionary, but very unlikely that someone will make a profitable product out of it, especially because the two more obvious uses for it already exist and are open source.

LLMs, which is what people are calling AI, is also a very cool new step for text prediction. But it's not in fact intelligent, so it can't do anything without supervision, and more often than not it's easier and safer to create something yourself than to fix a possibly broken, possibly malicious creation by someone else. LLMs are great for stuff like brainstorming or suggesting short pieces of code that I was about to type anyways, but to think they can produce a book or a program on their own is absurd.

However, as much as I think Blockchains are elegant, they solve an abstract and very specific problem, whereas LLMs are good at solving generalized stuff. There are plenty of applications that would benefit enormously from having LLMs, e.g. a bot that finds, summarizes and points you to documentation at work would help anyone having to deal with documentation to make them more efficient, and companies that invest in these sorts of solutions might come up with great products. But most of the time they're using it as a buzzword or worse trying to remove a person's job which will backfire.

Fingers crossed.

I think you rediscovered (1). Yes, most of those startups will disappear, pivot to the next hype, ...

It's less of a bubble than the block chain - by a really wide margin, the tech itself is already more useful itself than the block chain ever even pretended to be moving towards - but it IS still a bubble.

Some are grifters and will move to the next fad, some simply don't have good enough ideas and will fail, others won't be able to achieve their good ideas as funding slows.

Well yes and no. Startups will die because many do anyways but AI technology is not failing. As an IT professional I can tell you that companies are investing in AI power more and more and, as a regular employee, I can not explain how much time I save using chatGpt alone. BUT... as in google translate, if you know nothing about the subject and is relying only on chatgpt you may have a bad time.

Yes

Most AI startups are just middle men to OpenAI. I don’t think these startups will endure. People rather just use OpenAI directly.

I think there’s a future in AI. It’s good enough for many people today, and it will continue to evolve. Like it or not, we’re going to see more of it.

Blockchain is just MLM snake oil. The reason it’s still around is that it’s a great tool to separate people from their money.

too much grift happening in both... whatever economic value both technologies were gonna provide has been too muddied now.

I think you're so close here, you gotta look further at the overlap. The venn diagram of crypto bros and AI bros is a circle. What's happening is a constant cycle of out-of-touch business execs and fresh MBAs thinking they can print money using the hot new scientific breakthrough. Same as the Dot Com bubble, it's all just new snake oil for the salesmen.

tldr

they will both fail, yes