I'm getting really tired of the media misrepresenting reality. Stocks are still down compared to a year ago.
this post was submitted on 09 Apr 2025
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Still down compared to a month ago, but the post was a few days ago where there was one short upward trend for like a couple hours.
Here's a headline. Donald trump orchastrates a stock market crash. Uses his social media company to signal the buy, and release the tariff news. Insiders and truth social followers get rich as markets pump 10% immediately after tweet is released.
Stocks Soar!
All the way up to 40,157 from the Biden-Era dull-drums of 44,850
The four major indexes are still down 5 to 30% from yoy average rn.
4D chess all along! I knew he was a secret genius. Libs were triggered for no reason! It was all part of the plan.
... Meanwhile, the bond markets are continuing to freak the fuck out, and the yield curve has now inverted and univerted three times before an actual 'official' recession has begun.
For those that don't know, a yield curve inversion is when short term bonds offer a higher yield (interest rate) than long term bonds.
That... it not how that is supposed to work.
Generally speaking, a longer term bond should be riskier due to the amount of things that can possibly go wrong in that longer amount of time, as compared to a shorter term bond that pays itself back in less time, with less time for unforseen nonsense to happen.
Every single US official recession in the last ... 50, 100 years? has occured after first, the yield curve inverts, then it uninverts, and then an 'official' recession follows quite rapidly.
....Except fucking now.
Now we are in a situation where the yield curve has inverted then uninverted three fucking times without an 'official' recession actually starting.
This is unprecedented.
As of right now, the 6 month T Bill and the 5 year T Bond have roughly the same yield, and everything in between has a lower yield, the lowest point being the 2 yr.
... Its supposed to be basically a line going upward on the y axis of yields, as you move rightward on the x axis from shorter to longer term debt/bonds.
The bond market right now is more or less saying we are gonna be in for 2 years minimum of economic decline.
Trump's gonna default on the bonds and the debt to try to reset everything. Ya'll are fucked.
The casino model of doing business except in this case the “license to print money” is literal. No one can screw it up, right? Nah, let’s declare bankrupt and stiff all our creditors, and our debt will be taken care of. Smart. Business. Move
in this case the “license to print money” is literal. No one can screw it up, right?
Ask Robert Mugabe
... yeah.
Shits gonna get real bad.
Like Great Depression 2.0 bad, but this time shanty towns are all classed as illegal homeless encampments and Trump has publicly stated multiple times his plan for the homeless is literally concentration camps in the middle of nowhere or outskirts of cities, that kind of bad.
*Global stocks soar as Donald Trump pulls a dump & pump scam with all of his billionaire buddies.
"Soar"
Looks back a month to compare
Falling without style?
First thing I thought. Even after today, the S&P 500 is down 5% on the month and 10% since Trump took office
This is a dead cat bounce. Nothing fundamentally has changed until Trump is out of office. There is no one talking him down from his bad decision making.
He will move onto the next grift or scandal so he can dominate the next news cycle and make the old one go away. Eventually he will come back to fuck with the economy again.
Rinse & Repeat/Round and round we go until he hits something big he can’t make go away like Covid did in his first term. Then he will loose it.
If you want my bet on what that is, it will be a major war.
He will move onto the next grift or scandal so he can dominate the next news cycle and make the old one go away
This is his life's work. Way before the presidency.
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The China tariffs went into effect right?
AFAIK all of the 10% tariffs are currently in effect, as well as the 140% China tariffs, except for types of goods, and also the upward bump was 2 days ago when this post was made.
Are investors idiots? He's just going to change his mind again in three days
Are investors idiots?
A lot of investment is driven entirely by HFT algorithms and AIs now. The brokers oversee the broad strategy, but the trading is just a dozen different multi-billionaire hedge funds chasing one another's tails. Market buy-ups and sell-offs are triggered by a handful of headlines and aggregator engines, snowballing up or down based on computers responding to other computers.
And because the market is increasingly liquid - as more mega-investors like Buffet cash out in pursuit of future buying opportunities - you'll see sudden sharp inversions caused by the sheer amount of buying power that's being pent up and released between announcements.
He’s just going to change his mind again in three days
Very difficult to price that as a risk variable. And in the meantime, there's a ton of money to be made speculating on which way his wind will blow next.
Tbf, all these headlines miss that indexes like the S&P 500 are still far down from pre-tariff-mania. Investors are more or less updating their views for how screwed the markets are, rather than betting that everything is fine.
"Soar" is a strong word when you consider they were higher less than a week ago. Can't wait for the next thing he says to drop the market before the weekend so his boys can get in on the next pump and dump. He literally tweeted "NOW IS A GOOD TIME TO BUY" right before he paused the tariffs.
It's the only word journalist know to describe something that isn't plummeting.
Have we forgotten that he has done this each month since he was Inaugurated?
He crashes the the stock market with talk of tariffs. The wealthy buys options on the decline, and buy on this massive dip, and in a few days, HitlerPig announces that the countries on his list have responded to his tariff threats, so he is postponing them for a month or so.
The stock market recovers a bit, and the wealthy will make fortune. In a month, he'll do it all over again. This was thebthird cycle since Inauguration.
It's deliberate market manipulation.
It I not ~~illegal~~ Market Manipulation if the president does it
90 days to save up your hard earned money so you can buy the dip again...and again...and again. This is what the old shit stain is doing.
I guess y'all think 90 days is enough time for China to back down and for all of your manufacturing and supply chain to spin up?
He could change his mind on a fart tomorrow.
Farce.
Can’t wait to see the demands for DEI removal from sovereign nations to avoid tariffs. Or more energy blackmail.
🖕
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Penguins 1 - USA 0
The market reaction is dumb. 90 days bus very little for companies to adapt when years are needed.
I think this but it's just the people seeing his tweet immediately before he lifted the restrictions.
Looks like we are still heading for recession and Treasury bills interest is still jumping up.
One part is a reverse game of chicken, buy the dippest dip to realize most profit from less dippy dip buyers.
The other part is the assumption that this means the tariffs will never actually come or at least in a much relaxed form.
The vibe I get is that most elites really don't want to believe the president could be dumb, because that means they could be too. Elites own and/or work with a lot of stocks, and that extends to their investing decisions.
So they figure, sure, it must just be a 4D chess bluff.
it must just be a 4D chess bluff.
Many of us hope against all evidence there is some strategic logic here, some actual plan, some intelligence behind the chaos. I’m still in denial that this could happen in the real world …..it’s just a hallucination about some real estate conman
Yeah, that's the basic attitude I'm thinking of. Normalcy bias feed into it as well as what I mentioned about meritocracy.
I suspect it's less common in the lower classes because if you're poor, stability has never been guaranteed, or for that matter even reasonability. There's no expectation that's been set. Depending on a person's roots there might also be cultural memory in there of previous times things went crazy.
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Speaking from experience in Canada, the 90 days is meaningless. Welcome to the dance of constant tariff threats every two weeks only to backpedal when the market crashes.
He does not have the attention span to wait 9 days let alone 90. This man is a toddler with a flamethrower having a tantrum.
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From the article:
The commerce secretary added on X that he and Treasury secretary Scott Bessent “sat with the President while he wrote one of the most extraordinary Truth posts of his Presidency”
Next time I'm feeling down, I'll just remember that someone felt the need to post on Xitter that he helped Trump write down his best posts on some shit social.
The normalisation of that insane shit is something the mass media has to bear a large portion of the responsibility for.
Not specifically directed at OP, but I am sick of those truncated graphs.
Also, fuck Trump. Not in a goof way.
For 90 days, if he can resist changing it again that long.
I'm also pretty confused about how Canada and Mexico fit into this, because they said we're included in the rollback to 10%, but we weren't in the original "liberation day" tariffs in the first place.
35% Tarriffs on eu/Asia and 104% Tarriffs on China is still a recession. Other countries arent removing their Tarriffs
The only positive thing this did was show that Trump is weak, so hopefully he'll stay at these rates and maybe he'll be out by the end of the year
Are we sure this wasn't a pump and dumb scheme by the administration?
Trump literally said "it's a great time to buy".
So, yes, it is definitely a pump and dump, but it's not only a pump and dump.
Definitely “pump and dump”, but is it market manipulation to enrich his corporate benefactors or market manipulation to say “I’m winning”
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Isn't the 10% still active? This is the oldest negotiation strategy in the book..
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