Note that these aren't polls taken in each riding. 338 takes the voting data of the riding in previous elections and then uses national and province-wide polls (which are broken down by voter demographics and how people voted previously) to predict how voter intention is changing. So for example a middle class white riding that voted mostly NDP previously is going to be predicted more Liberal when Canada-wide polls are showing that the Liberals are polling well with the white middle class and former NDP voters.
this post was submitted on 18 Apr 2025
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How accurate is 338?
It's a bad attempt at copying Nate Silver's work, but lacks any statistical quality or funding. It's something to read but in my opinion, total BS.
https://338canada.com/record.htm
The 338Canada / Qc125 model has thus far covered 18 general elections in Canada. In total, 2,039 electoral districts were projected.
So far, the model has correctly identified the winner in 1,821 districts, a success rate of 89.3%.
Among the 218 remaining districts, 132 of the winners (6.5%) obtained a share of the vote that was within the projection's margin of error (moe). Only 86 districts (4.2%) were complete misses.
On this site, electoral districts are labelled according to the odds of winning by the projected favourite party. If a party's odds of winning are at or above 99.9% (formerly 99.5%), the district is labelled as safe. Between 90% and 99.9%, the district is likely. Between 70% ad 90%, we use the label leaning. Finally, if no party has odds above 70%, the district will be labelled as a toss up.
Here below is the complete breakdown of correct and incorrect winners from safe, likely, leaning and toss up districts: