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| Party Name | Seats (Current) | Seats Change | Percentage (Current) | Percentage Change | Majority Probability | Minority Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liberal | 183 | +23 | 43.6% | +11% | 70.5% | 15.7% |
| Conservative | 138 | +19 | 43.2% | +9.5% | 5.7% | 8.1% |
| Bloc | 14 | -18 | 3.5% | -4.1% | 0% | 0% |
| New Democrat | 6 | -19 | 6.2% | -11.6% | N/A | N/A |
Blows my mind that there are so many morons out there that would vote Conservative - especially these days where the party has gone full mask-off.
Like fuck bud, go move to the USA where the shithole has already been well established, leave Canada alone!
There seem to be a lot of people in this country who either hate themselves or their families enough to still want to vote Conservative after all they've seen in the States. With the lunacy going on with PP, Smith, etc... just such a devastatingly poor choice for this country and everyone in it. Don't do this to yourself, please.
An amazing number of people think "I'm mad at Liberals" = "The cons must be better"
"I'm mad at the Liberals"
NDP support crashes.
"I like this new Liberal guy!"
NDP support crashes.
There's more to the dynamic than just "Liberals bad".
My son started a game where he flips off all the houses with conservatives signs lol. Totally fair since the signs are a big "fuck you" to his future.
Reminder that the polls for what amounts to the popular vote is not the whole story. You have to look at it riding by riding.
That said. Please vote.
Regardless of the polling numbers. Dont forget to VOTE!!
You can vote most days at most Elections Canada Offices across Canada before April 22nd. There's also the advanced polling days as well and other ways to vote.
Ways to vote -> https://www.elections.ca/content2.aspx?section=vote&document=index&lang=e
Keys dates related to the upcoming election -> https://www.elections.ca/content2.aspx?section=kdt&document=index&lang=e
Literally just dropped my ballot 5mins ago. Registered to vote from abroad, so got the chance to send it away early. Could have sent it last week, but had to look into candidates a bit more before I cast my vote.
As far as I remember, during the BC provincial elections in the fall, Mainstreet consistently indicated the BC United (conservative) party was around 5 points ahead of the NDP in polling.
The others generally showed it to be a dead heat.
In the end, the NDP won a very close race and Mainstreet was shown to be the one overrepresenting conservative vote intentions as compared to the other pollsters.
Not sure what the differences were in their methodology, but it wouldn't surprise me to see the same thing going on here.
Well this spike doesn't look too good. I can't see confirmation for such a bump in Nanos. I hope it's a fluke. π
Could it be from the liberal operatives planting story?
Like what?
(I'm really just curious, not challenging you or anything.)
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/liberal-oppo-csfn-1.7509217
Though is far too early for any backlash to show up in polls.
EDIT a word
On Friday night, in two Ottawa bars, campaign workers shared how the party was behind this move β two Liberal Party staffers attended the conference intended for conservatives and placed these buttons in areas where attendees would find them.
At the pub D'Arcy McGee's near Parliament Hill, a number of Liberal war room staffers met for drinks on the far side of the bar. This journalist joined one of them for a quick conversation, but heard another staffer, who had previously identified himself as being involved in opposition research, describing how he and a colleague planted the buttons.
π€¦ π€¦ββοΈπ€¦ββοΈ
But yeah, the story is from April 13th so it's unlikely to be reflected in the polls. Plus given the attitudes at the moment, I doubt people who'd vote Lib would decide not to vote Lib based on this.
I believe this won't hurt as much as people assume. It might actually break through conservative users' media bubble a little bit because their algorithm is going to push this story down their throats as rage-bait but it also brings to their attention the real divide in the Conservative party currently. Something that might not have reached their eyes otherwise.
It's probably a dumb mistake by overly eager staffers, but I can't shake the feeling that this is somewhat calculated.
Thanks. I wasn't aware of that.
Would that really shift the polls by that much though?
Β―\_(γ)_/Β― Personally, I don't think it'll have a large impact, but I honestly don't know.
They did a dirty trick to make the cons look worse. CBC has reported on it.
And apparently yapped about it in a pub... amateur hour. π€‘
I can just imagine PP's wailing about this.
check cbc
Did they decide to collect data at church this morning? Or is this the fallout from the "stop the steal" thing?
Stupid prank. Fire the low lifeβs and move on.